By Kennedy Emetulu
Though the news is yet to be properly confirmed, I have read Mr. Ben Murray-Bruce on Twitter congratulating Peter Obi as Atiku Abubakar’s running mate and I’ve seen some publications confirming this. Ordinarily, this would not be my approach to a choice of a running mate for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ticket in the circumstances, because I firmly believe that the South-West is the battleground.
Indeed, I was involved in a debate with some of my brothers on the social network where I argued the case for a South-West choice based on what I felt was the best electoral strategy. Atiku has gone the other way. I think it’s a very bold choice which says so many things and which also makes a good assumption about Nigerians.
First, I think Atiku is telling us that we do not have to follow the old routine of falling for the blackmail game of those who use ethnic politics to hold us down. This is Atiku courageously calling the bluff of ethnic merchants like Bola Tinubu on one hand and assuring Nigerians on the other hand that he can fight Muhammadu Buhari for the Northern vote. When one looks at the political realignment all over the place going in his favour, you’ll want to believe that he knows some things some of us don’t know.
For instance, is he looking at Tinubu jumping the Buhari ship? They both obviously respect each other and we know they have worked well together before. If I’m advising Tinubu now, I will tell him his fortunes are better with Atiku than with Buhari right now. For Tinubu, more than any politician in Nigeria right now, it’s not just about winning or losing this election; it’s about the future and his legacy and both have reached the end of their tethers with the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Buhari government, even if it does not look so at the moment. Of course, we can all speculate, but politicians are a different breed, we really cannot say. This choice of Obi does not scare me; it gives me hope.
Secondly, this is a more pan-Nigerian ticket than the APC’s because it’s opened up the political space better than the last four years in terms of the dynamism of choices. For instance, it’s obvious that the South-West must have negotiated for something. If it’s the Senate Presidency (depending on the final composition of the Senate after the vote), I would think it a more powerful and more strategic position than the Vice Presidency.
But I don’t know if that’s possible with a Bukola Saraki looking to return to the Senate and with his eyes clearly set on retaining the headship of the legislature. It could be some powerful ministries or some other combination of demands that will still keep the South-West strategically strong within the government. All that wouldn’t be very necessary once Atiku runs a true national government because there are many strategic positions to fill and fill fairly once the man at the head has his head screwed on right.
Thirdly, this is a challenging ticket for citizens because it will require people crossing their ethnic boundaries and comfort zones to make this ticket win. There was no fear of the Igbo not voting Atiku, yet he’s choosing a running mate from the South-East. To win, others will have to cross over to endorse that ticket. Atiku believes that the South-West is an enlightened constituency that has suffered under Buhari’s leadership, despite the No 2 man coming from there.
Atiku knows that Tinubu’s interest in 2023 is pushing him and he also knows that one of Buhari’s supposed trump cards to divide the South-Eastern vote is his promise that he would be working towards an Igbo presidential candidate to succeed him in 2023. While this is obviously a lie, it remains potent because the prospect of a PDP President staying another possible 8 years after Buhari is not a great incentive for the South-East.
Atiku nullifies that fear with the choice of Peter Obi because that choice serves two immediate purposes to defeat the Buhari line of thinking. One, it says an Igbo is a hair’s breadth away from the Presidency and two, anytime Atiku finishes his term or terms, an Igbo is strategically placed to readily take over. There can be no safer pair of hands than Obi. He is young, intelligent, prudent, inspirational, nationalistic and absolutely credible.
Fourthly, Atiku is seizing the marginalization bogey by the horn. This is a choice that goes against seemingly popular wisdom. He knows that the Igbo are not going to turn against the PDP if he doesn’t choose an Igbo, but he knows that the Igbo have suffered greatly under Buhari and it is important to make a statement to the Igbo that they are part of Nigeria, no matter what any person thinks.
When we consider the humiliation of IPOB and its activists, the Python Dance, the kidnap and disappearance of Nnamdi Kanu in the hands of Nigerian soldiers under the orders of Buhari, the arrest and humiliation of Igbo women, Atiku is sending a clear message to the Igbo that if he is not intimidated, they should not be. He is saying he does not mind taking an electoral gamble just to return confidence to Ndigbo. This is a radical statesman approach and the message is loud and clear.
Fifthly, Atiku is saying he is more concerned about two things right now – peace and the economy. By choosing a South-Easterner, Atiku is making clear that peace and stability in Nigeria is necessary. Like a lot of us, he’s tired of the chants of secession. To be clear, he is not responding to the threat by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), but he can allow them to claim some small victory considering how Buhari has treated Ndigbo in the name of fighting IPOB. Not that IPOB will actually embrace him publicly, but their attacks against his ticket would be muted.
He knows this choice will douse the noise on secession if the ticket wins and he knows he needs that for his agenda to work because the IPOB matter is truly a national distraction. On the economy, the choice of Obi is nothing but a choice to drive economic prosperity. For a man like Atiku, this might well be his most important consideration. Like him, Obi is a hands-on businessman who understands the private sector like the back of his hand. In his Chatham House speech, Atiku said pointblank that nowadays if you don’t know business, don’t go into governance. Obviously, he didn’t mean this in an absolute sense, but we understand that what he’s saying is that if you do not know how to create wealth, don’t attempt to play with public funds and make public policies around them.
Sixthly, this is the clearest sign that Atiku will implement restructuring. The Igbo and restructuring are two sides of the same coin. A choice of Obi is to assure everyone that this is going to happen. Atiku realizes that restructuring is a revolutionary idea, which even though he would be approaching first on the extant constitutional level, will require fundamental socio-political change for completion. Obi would be an instantly credible voice to push it with him on a national level.
Seventhly, Atiku has shown his card as a true Nigerian by actually giving the South-West the power to determine his fate based solely on the belief that the South-West, credited to be the most enlightened part of the federation, will recognize the language he’s speaking with this choice. This is about one Nigeria, this is about togetherness, this is about pulling up one of the famed tripods of the federation. This is Atiku telling the South-West to not leave the Igbo behind. He is asking them to join him in asserting that the Igbo are part of Nigeria. He has many friends from the South-West region and he knows many things said about their elite. Atiku does not believe that they are gullible enough to fall for any gimmick now that they have seen the ineptness and wickedness of Buhari. He is counting on them to help rejuvenate Nigeria. He knows they have the biggest and most strategic role to play in the election, but he didn’t play tokenism. He’s counting on their nationalism, cosmopolitanism, independent-mindedness and intellect.
Finally, when I put all these together and envision what type of Nigeria that will come from the mix if this ticket wins, I’m quite hopeful. Indeed, I’ve never been this hopeful since the June 12, 1993 election. Though it may not look so, if he pulls this off, the South-West will be the biggest beneficiaries of an Atiku and a post-Atiku presidency. On a practical level, there has to be constant appeasement of the South-West during his governance. But unlike appeasement for other regions, say, in the North, in the South-West such appeasements will invariably go with merit and competence.
It is also obvious that once the rotation returns to the South, having notionally given up the VP slot to the South-East, the South-West would be in pole position to make a claim for the presidency and that would be fair. That is enough incentive for them to work strenuously for an Atiku win because if he loses and the presidency rotates South in 2023, the North, which then would determine where it goes, might just support the South-East against the South-West. But with this, it’s more straightforward. The South-East can afford to let the South-West have it if what we have now is a negotiation to put a South-Easterner there as No 2. I think all Nigerians should make this work. It is very refreshing.
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