By Austine Uche-Ejeke
For some time now, the polity has been inundated with the hues and cries of the crave by the National Assembly to reorder the sequence of voting in the upcoming 2019 general elections. This is what is widely known as Change in Election time table for 2019.
Many are wondering what could be the whole apprehension about this proposed change. After all, the mantra that brought this government into being was predicated on change.
But a brief historical incursion into how elections were conducted in recent past will put things in proper perspective. Nigerians need to be reminded that the election that brought in Shehu Shagari in 1979 was structured on the National Assembly, Governors elections before the Presidential election which came last. In that election, there was nothing like bandwagon effect or arm twisting as the election was adjudged free and fair to some extent. Why was the election adjudged free and fair. The then ruling party that won the Presidential election had only 7 states out of the whole 19 states. While the remaining political parties shared the remaining states with a party like UPN winning 5 states!
UPN it must be recalled won in then Gongola State in far north, clearing all the 3 Senatorial seats. In fact, because of that NPN could not muster enough seats to form a majority government in the National Assembly that they had to coopt other political parties like the NPP, GNPP, etc., to form a coalition and government of national consensus!
Having seen the hand writing on the wall, NPN changed the order of elections in 1983 that made the party win the so-called landslide and moon slide victory by making the Presidential election to come first before other elections. Of course, we know where that led the country as that was one of the reasons that led to the truncation of the Second Republic.
Since that time, elections have been virtually ordered to follow the pattern of Presidential election coming first and others following suit. The implications of this is that invariably Legislators and Governors are coerced to work for the electoral victory of the president or else their own election will be in jeopardy. So whether the incumbent president is performing or not or whether the Presidential candidate is good or not they have no choice but work for his victory if they actually want to be elected. The reason being that the victory of the president will pave way for them to win their election. This is in the sense that if the president and the party did not win at the Presidential election it may have a negative effect on other subsequent elections.
Also, there is this thing they call bandwagon effect. And that simply means that once a president emerges, the political party that won will have a sort of sweeping effect on other subsequent elections as voters may be inclined to queue into the winning party for them to reap the benefits of main stream politics of the central government.
Little wonder the uproar and apprehensions that the recent move by the National Assembly to upturn the pattern of voting come 2019. For now, it’s seems that the both chambers of the National Assembly have approved of the bill. Apprehensions from the legislators is that if they successfully work for the re-election of President Buhari that it may boomerang on them as the president and his hatchet men may turn the tide against them and ensure that they are not reelected. The reason for this is not farfetched as this crop of legislators have not really worked harmoniously with President Buhari.
For that they changed the whole arrangements made by INEC that elections be done in two folds of Presidential election coming first and others following behind. But the National Assembly in their wisdom is saying no and thus patterned the election to be in four folds with the Presidential election coming last! That means spreading the election to last for four whole weeks. Of course, this has caused serious uproar in the Senate with some Senators walking out and protesting the that the whole change of election time table is skewed against one person and that is President Buhari. In fact 19 Senators staged a walk out from the Senate plenary when it looked like majority of the Senate were hell bent on having their way.
Other arguments against this new change is that the cost of election will be too much on the fragile economy that the country is battling. But pundits for this change are saying that no amount is too much to give the country a credible election; that the votes of the electorates will count. They are quick to point out the corruption and sleaze going on in the country and argue that the so-called wastages will pale into insignificance when compared with the quantum of looting and extravaganza going on now. They argue that the country can afford to spend more to get it right in a country where an ordinary reptile like snake can swallow a whooping N36 million and a phantom accident consuming N24 million worth of JAMB recharge cards.
Other argument is centered on the proprietary of the National Assembly to dictate to INEC on how to conduct elections which ordinarily is their constitutional role to perform. But looking at it seriously without the necessarily siding any of the waring party is the fact that granted the INEC has the right to conduct election, but the National Assembly still reserves the right to make laws which the executive (INEC) are to carry by way of execution.
All these still bring us to the pertinent question of what’s the fuss about the change of election time table? If a president or political party is performing creditably well, he doesn’t need to entertain any fear if his election is coming first, second or even last. In fact, as the election is about 12 months away from now he will concentrate on dishing out democracy dividends. It will even be the people that will be clamouring and campaigning for the performer, irrespective of the fact that his election is coming first or last.
This still brings us to the campaign and clamour for one off tenure for all elected officers in the land. In a situation where we have a one tenure arrangement of six years all these political brigandage and fighting and dying for second tenure and the insistence on having Presidential or Gubernatorial election first so as to have a comparative advantage over others will not come in.
In essence, whether the extant election time table is changed or retained what Nigerians know is that what will be will be. And who will win will still win. But the general conclusion is that what will assure electoral victory for anybody or political party is sterling performance and not necessarily the pattern and order of election time table.
*Austine Uche-Ejeke, Publisher and Editor-in-chief AGENDA Community Newspaper and Public Affairs Analyst wrote vide eaustineuche@yahoo.com
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